Updated on 2026/03/15

写真a

 
NODA AKIHIKO
 
Organization
Undergraduate School School of Commerce Professor
Title
Professor
External link

Degree

  • Ph.D in Business and Commerce ( 2012.1   Keio University )

Research Interests

  • Time Series Analysis

  • State Space Model

  • Efficient Market Hypothesis

  • Adaptive Market Hypothesis

  • Financial Econometrics

  • Finite Population

  • Market Efficiency

Research Areas

  • Humanities & social sciences / Economic statistics

  • Humanities & social sciences / Money and finance

Research History

  • Meiji University   School of Commerce   Professor

    2023.4

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    Country/Region:Japan

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  • Meiji University   School of Commerce   Associate Professor

    2021.4 - 2023.3

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    Country/Region:Japan

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  • Kyoto Sangyo University   Faculty of Economics   Associate Professor

    2015.4 - 2021.3

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  • Wakayama University   Graduate School of Economics   Associate Professor

    2014.4 - 2015.3

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    Country/Region:Japan

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  • Wakayama University   Faculty of Economics   Lecturer   Assistant Professor

    2012.4 - 2014.3

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    Country/Region:Japan

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  • Toyo University   Faculty of Economics   Assistant Professor

    2011.4 - 2012.3

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    Country/Region:Japan

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  • Keio University   Keio Advanced Research Centers   Researher Postdoc   Research Associate

    2010.4 - 2011.3

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    Country/Region:Japan

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Professional Memberships

  • Japan Society of Monetary Economics

    2020.9

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  • Socio-Economic History Society

    2014.9

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  • Society for American Baseball Research

    2014.1

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  • Western Economic Association International

    2012.1

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  • Econometric Society

    2010.1

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  • Nippon Finance Association

    2010.1

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  • Japanese Economic Association

    2008.1

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Committee Memberships

  • Department of Economics and Finance, La Trobe School of Business, La Trobe University   博士論文外部審査員  

    2018.10 - 2019.1   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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Papers

  • Finite-Sample Properties of Model Specification Tests for Multivariate Dynamic Regression Models International journal

    Koichiro Moriya, Akihiko Noda

    Econometrics Papers (arXiv.org)   2026.1

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:arXiv.org  

    DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2601.21272

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  • An Alternative Estimation Method for Time-Varying Parameter Models Reviewed

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, Tatsuma Wada

    Econometrics   10 ( 2 )   23 - 23   2022.4

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:MDPI AG  

    A multivariate, non-Bayesian, regression-based, or feasible generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is proposed to estimate time-varying VAR parameter models. Although it has been known that the Kalman-smoothed estimate can be alternatively estimated using GLS for univariate models, we assess the accuracy of the feasible GLS estimator compared with commonly used Bayesian estimators. Unlike the maximum likelihood estimator often used together with the Kalman filter, it is shown that the possibility of the pile-up problem occurring is negligible. In addition, this approach enables us to deal with stochastic volatility models, models with a time-dependent variance–covariance matrix, and models with non-Gaussian errors that allow us to deal with abrupt changes or structural breaks in time-varying parameters.

    DOI: 10.3390/econometrics10020023

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  • The Futures Premium and Rice Market Efficiency in Prewar Japan Reviewed

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, Akihiko Noda

    Economic History Review   71 ( 3 )   909 - 937   2018.8

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Wiley  

    DOI: 10.1111/ehr.12608

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  • A Test of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis using a Time-Varying AR Model in Japan Reviewed

    Akihiko Noda

    Finance Research Letters   17   66 - 71   2016.5

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2016.01.004

    Web of Science

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  • Economic Growth, Financial Constraints, and the Evolution of Financial Market Efficiency in Japan, 1924-2024

    Kenichi Hirayama, Keiichi Morimoto, Akihiko Noda

    SSRN Electronic Journal   2026.2

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Elsevier BV  

    This paper constructs a comprehensive dataset of Japanese equity total returns, real short-term interest rates, and inflation from 1924 to 2024 and studies how financial market efficiency evolves with economic development. Using a GLS-based time-varying VAR, we estimate a joint degree of market inefficiency that captures return predictability and show that efficiency improves over the long run but temporarily deteriorates around major macro-financial regime changes. To interpret these medium-run episodes, we build a monetary endogenous growth model with financial intermediation and borrowing constraints. A relaxation of financial constraints shifts the balanced growth path and slows convergence, generating transitional dynamics that make equity returns more predictable. We then generate pseudo data from the model, add noise, and apply the same time-varying VAR procedure; the estimated inefficiency measure rises during the transition and fades as the economy approaches the new steady state.

    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.6297578

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  • Measuring the Time-Varying Market Efficiency in the Prewar and Wartime Japanese Stock Market, 1924–1943 Reviewed

    Kenichi Hirayama, Akihiko Noda

    Asia-Pacific Economic History Review   65 ( 1 )   131 - 159   2025.3

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1111/aehr.12297

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  • On the Time-Varying Structure of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory using the Japanese Sector Indices International journal

    Koichiro Moriya, Akihiko Noda

    Statistical Finance Papers (arXiv.org)   2023.5

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:arXiv.org  

    DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2305.05998

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  • Time Instability of the Fama-French Multifactor Models: An International Evidence International journal

    Koichiro Moriya, Akihiko Noda

    Quantitative Finance Papers (arXiv.org)   2022.8

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    Authorship:Last author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:arXiv.org  

    DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2208.01270

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  • Examining the Dynamic Asset Market Linkages under the COVID-19 Global Pandemic Reviewed International journal

    Akihiko Noda

    Economics Bulletin   42 ( 2 )   653 - 661   2022.3

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Vanderbilt University  

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  • Time-Varying Comovement of Foreign Exchange Markets: A GLS-Based Time-Varying Model Approach Reviewed

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, Tatsuma Wada

    Mathematics   9 ( 8 )   849 - 849   2021.4

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:MDPI AG  

    How strongly are foreign exchange markets linked in terms of their similarities in long-run fluctuations? Are they cointegrating? To analyze such “comovements,” we present a time-varying cointegration model for the foreign exchange rates of the currencies of Canada, Japan, and the UK vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar from May 1990 through July 2015. Unlike previous studies, we allow the loading matrix in the vector error-correction (VEC) model to be varying over time. Because the loading matrix in the VEC model is associated with the speed at which deviations from the long-run relationship disappear, we propose a new degree of market comovement based on the time-varying loading matrix to measure the strength or robustness of the long-run relationship over time. Since exchange rates are determined by macrovariables, cointegration among exchange rates implies these variables share common stochastic trends. Therefore, the proposed degree measures the degree of market comovement. Our main finding is that the market comovement has become stronger over the past quarter-century, but at a decreasing rate with two major turning points: one in 1995 and the other one in 2008.

    DOI: 10.3390/math9080849

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  • On the Time-Varying Market Efficiency of Cryptocurrencies Reviewed International journal

    Akihiko Noda

    Applied Economics Letters   28 ( 6 )   433 - 439   2021.3

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Taylor & Francis  

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  • Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model

    Kenichi Hirayama, Akihiko Noda

    arXiv:2008.00860   2020.8

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  • Measuring the Time-Varying Efficiency of the Prewar Japanese Stock Market

    Kenichi Hirayama, Akihiko Noda

    arXiv:1911.04059   2019.11

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  • Discretion versus Policy Rules in Commodity Markets: A Case of the Osaka-Dojima Rice Exchange, 1914-1939 International journal

    Miko Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, Akihiko Noda

    Quantitative Finance Papers (arXiv.org)   2017.4

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:arXiv.org  

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  • Market Efficiency and Government Interventions in Prewar Japanese Rice Futures Markets Reviewed

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, Akihiko Noda

    Financial History Review   23 ( 3 )   325 - 346   2016.12

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Cambridge University Press (CUP)  

    This study analyzes how the colonial rice trade in prewar Japan affected its rice market, considering several government interventions in the two rice futures exchanges in Tokyo and Osaka. We explore the interventions in the futures markets using two procedures. First, we measure the joint degree of efficiency in the markets using a time-varying vector autoregression model. Second, we examine historical events that possibly affected the markets and focus on one event at a time. The degree of efficiency varies over time within our sample period (1881-1932). The observation, together with historical analysis, leads to the following conclusions: (1) the two major markets in Tokyo and Osaka were nearly efficient; (2) government interventions involving the delivery of imported rice from Taiwan and Korea often reduced futures market efficiency; finally, (3) this relationship continued as long as the quality difference between imported and domestic rice existed. The government interventions that promoted domestic distributions of the colonial goods resulted in confusion in the commodity markets, and decreased efficiency of the markets in the metropole.

    DOI: 10.1017/s0968565017000014

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  • Market Integration in Japanese Rice Markets, 1880–1932 International journal

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, and Akihiko Noda

    Quantitative Finance Papers (arXiv.org)   2016.4

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:arXiv.org  

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  • The Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency in the US: A Non-Bayesian Time-Varying Model Approach Reviewed

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, Tatsuma Wada

    Applied Economics   48 ( 7 )   621 - 635   2016.2

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1083532

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  • International Stock Market Efficiency: A Non-Bayesian Time-Varying Model Approach Reviewed

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, Tatsuma Wada

    Applied Economics   46 ( 23 )   2744 - 2754   2014.8

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.909579

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  • 日本の株式市場における市場効率性の時変構造

    野田顕彦

    経済学論叢   65 ( 4 )   997 - 1012   2014.3

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:Japanese   Publisher:同志社大学経済学会  

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  • A Survey on the Estimation of CCAPMs via Moment Restrictions: The Case of Japan Reviewed

    Akihiko Noda

    Keio Economic Studies   49   69 - 91   2013

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Keio Economic Society  

    CiNii Research

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  • The GEL Estimates Resolve the Risk-free Rate Puzzle in Japan Reviewed

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda

    Applied Financial Economics   22 ( 5 )   365 - 374   2012.3

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Informa UK Limited  

    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2011.613761

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  • Testing the "Catching up with the Joneses" Model with Consumption Externality: Some Evidence from Japan Reviewed

    Akihiko Noda

    Economics Bulletin   31 ( 2 )   1648 - 1658   2011

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Vanderbilt University  

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  • Measuring the Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution for Consumption: Some Evidence from Japan Reviewed

    Akihiko Noda and Shunsuke Sugiyama

    Economics Bulletin   30 ( 1 )   524 - 533   2010

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Books

  • 喫煙習慣のパネル分析:合理的依存症モデルの検証 Reviewed

    上村一樹, 野田顕彦( Role: Joint author第4章)

    慶應義塾大学出版会  2011.6 

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    Responsible for pages:91-110   Language:Japanese  

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  • 家計の借入行動と景気変動 Reviewed

    野田顕彦・上村一樹( Role: Joint author第7章)

    慶應義塾大学出版会  2010.6 

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    Responsible for pages:165-179   Language:Japanese  

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Presentations

  • Finite-Sample Properties of Model Specification Tests under Latent Dependence Structures in Multivariate Linear Regression

    Koichiro Moriya, Akihiko Noda

    Western Economic Association International 100th Annual Conference  2025.6 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

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  • Forecasting Cryptocurrency Returns with a Sparse Dynamic Factor Model International conference

    Akihiko Noda and Tatsuma Wada

    The 18th International Joint Conference CFE-CMStatistics  2024.12  Computational and Financial Econometrics and Computational and Methodological Statistics

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    Event date: 2024.12

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:King's College London (London, U.K)   Country/Region:United Kingdom  

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  • Forecasting Cryptocurrency Returns with a Sparse Dynamic Factor Model International conference

    Akihiko Noda and Tatsuma Wada

    Midwest Econometric Group 2024 Meeting  2024.11  Midwest Econometric Group

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    Event date: 2024.11

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:University of Kentucky (Lexington, U.S.)   Country/Region:United States  

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  • A GLS-based Wald Test for Portfolio Efficiency under Serial Correlation

    Koichiro Moriya and Akihiko Noda

    日本金融学会2024年度秋季大会  2024.10  日本金融学会

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    Event date: 2024.10

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:沖縄コンベンションセンター  

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  • A GLS-based Wald Test for Portfolio Efficiency under Serial Correlation International conference

    Koichiro Moriya and Akihiko Noda

    Western Economic Association International 99th Annual Conference  2024.7  Western Economic Association International

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    Event date: 2024.6 - 2024.7

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Seattle, U.S.   Country/Region:United States  

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  • On the Time-Varying Structure of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory using the Japanese Sector Indices

    Koichiro Moriya and Akihiko Noda

    日本金融学会2023年度秋季大会  2023.9  日本金融学会

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    Event date: 2023.9 - 2023.10

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:九州大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • On the Time-Varying Structure of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory using the Japanese Sector Indices International conference

    Koichiro Moriya and Akihiko Noda

    Western Economic Association International 98th Annual Conference  2023.7  Western Economic Association International

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    Event date: 2023.7

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:San Diego, U.S.   Country/Region:United States  

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  • Finite-Sample Properties of Model Specification Tests under Latent Dependence Structures in Multivariate Linear Regression

    Koichiro Moriya, Akihiko Noda

    2025.11 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

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  • How Many Miles to the Battlefield?: Zaibatsu and Market Inefficiency in the Wartime Japanese Stock Market, 1930–1943

    Akihiko Noda, Takenobu Yuki

    2025.11 

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  • Time Instability of the Fama-French Multifactor Models: An International Evidence

    Koichiro Moriya and Akihiko Noda

    日本経済学会2024年度秋季大会  2024.10  日本経済学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:福岡大学  

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  • Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model

    Kenichi Hirayama, Akihiko Noda

    日本経済学会2022年度秋季大会  2022.10  日本経済学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:東京(慶應義塾大学)   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • Estimating the Time-Varying Structure of the Fama-French Multi-Factor Models International conference

    Akihiko Noda

    Western Economic Association International 97th Annual Conference  2022.7  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Portland   Country/Region:United States  

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  • Measuring the Time-Varying Market Efficiency in Prewar Japanese Stock Markets

    Kenichi Hirayama, Akihiko Noda

    2021.10 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country/Region:Japan  

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  • Measuring the Time-Varying Efficiency of the Prewar Japanese Stock Market

    Kenichi Hirayama and Akihiko Noda

    日本金融学会2021年度秋季大会  2021.10  日本金融学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:大阪経済大学(オンライン)   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model International conference

    Western Economic Association International 96th Annual Conference  2021.7 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country/Region:United States  

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  • Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model International conference

    Kenichi Hirayama, Akihiko Noda

    Western Economic Association International 96th Annual Conference  2021.6  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Online   Country/Region:United States  

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  • Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model

    Kenichi Hirayama and Akihiko Noda

    日本金融学会2020年度秋季大会  2020.11  日本金融学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:岡山商科大学(オンライン)   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model,

    Kenichi Hirayama, Akihiko Noda

    2020.11 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country/Region:Japan  

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  • On the Time-Varying Efficiency of Cryptocurrency Markets International conference

    Akihiko Noda

    Western Economic Association International 94th Annual Conference  2019.6  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:San Francisco, U.S.   Country/Region:United States  

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  • On the Time-Varying Efficiency of Cryptocurrency Markets, International conference

    Western Economic Association International 94th Annual Conference  2019.6  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:San Francisco   Country/Region:United States  

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  • Discretion versus Policy Rules in Commodity Markets: A Case of the Osaka-Dojima Rice Exchange, 1914-1939

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, Akihiko Noda

    日本経済学会2018年度秋季大会  2018.9 

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  • An Alternative Estimation for Time-Varying Parameter Models International conference

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, and Tatsuma Wada

    The 2nd International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics  2018.6  The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Hong Kong, China   Country/Region:Hong Kong  

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  • Discretion versus Policy Rules in Futures Markets: A Case of the Osaka-Dojima Rice Exchange, 1914-1939 International conference

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, Akihiko Noda

    World Economic History Congress 2018  2018.6 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Boston, U.S.  

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  • Discretion versus Policy Rules in Futures Markets: A Case of the Osaka-Dojima Rice Exchange, 1914-1939 International conference

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, and Akihiko Noda

    World Economic History Congress 2018  2018.6  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Boston, U.S.   Country/Region:United States  

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  • An Alternative Estimation of A Time-Varying Parameter Model International conference

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, Tatsuma Wada

    The 2nd International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics  2018.6  The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Hong Kong, China  

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  • Market Efficiency and Price Stabilization Policy in Interwar Osaka-Dojima Rice Exchange

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, Akihiko Noda

    日本経済学会2017年度秋季大会  2017.9  日本経済学会

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:青山学院大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • Market Efficiency and Price Stabilization Policy in Interwar Osaka-Dojima Rice Exchange International conference

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, and Akihiko Noda

    Western Economic Association International 92nd Annual Conference  2017.6  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:San Diego, US   Country/Region:United States  

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  • An Alternative Estimation for Time-Varying Parameter Models International conference

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, and Tatsuma Wada

    Western Economic Association International 92nd Annual Conference  2017.6  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:San Diego, US   Country/Region:United States  

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  • An Alternative Estimation of A Time-Varying Parameter Model International conference

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, Tatsuma Wada

    Western Economic Association International 92nd Annual Conference  2017.6  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:San Diego, US  

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  • An Alternative Estimation of A Time-Varying Parameter Model International conference

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, Tatsuma Wada

    The 1st International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics  2017.6  The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Hong Kong, China  

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  • An Alternative Estimation for Time-Varying Parameter Models International conference

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, and Tatsuma Wada

    The 1st International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics  2017.6  The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Hong Kong, China   Country/Region:Hong Kong  

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  • Time-Varying Comovement of Foreign Exchange Markets International conference

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, and Tatsuma Wada

    Western Economic Association International 92nd Annual Conference  2017.6  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:San Diego, US   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • Market Integration in the Prewar Japanese Rice Markets International conference

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, Akihiko Noda

    The 2nd International Conference on Economic History  2017.6  Kyoto Sangyo University

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (invited, special)  

    Venue:Kyoto, Japan  

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  • 戦間期大阪堂島米穀取引所における先物市場の 価格形成と米穀政策

    伊藤幹夫・前田廉孝・野田顕彦

    社会経済史学会第86回全国大会  2017.5  社会経済史学会

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:慶應義塾大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • Market Integration in the Prewar Japanese Rice Markets International conference

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, Akihiko Noda

    The 1st International Conference on Economic History  2017.2  Keimyung University

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (invited, special)  

    Venue:Deagu, Korea  

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  • Time-Varying Comovement of Foreign Exchange Markets International conference

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, and Tatsuma Wada

    Midwest Econometrics Group 26th Annual Meeting  2016.10  Midwest Econometrics Group

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Illinois, US   Country/Region:United States  

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  • Market Integration in the Prewar Japanese Rice Markets

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, and Akihiko Noda

    日本経済学会2016年度秋季大会  2016.9  日本経済学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:早稲田大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • Time-Varying Comovement of Foreign Exchange Markets International conference

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, and Tatsuma Wada

    Western Economic Association International 91st Annual Conference  2016.6  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Portland, US   Country/Region:United States  

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  • Market Integration in the Prewar Japanese Rice Markets International conference

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, and Akihiko Noda

    Western Economic Association International 91st Annual Conference  2016.6  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Portland, US   Country/Region:United States  

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  • 戦前期日本における東京・大阪米穀市場の統合 過程:電信電話網の利用拡大と関連を中心に

    伊藤幹夫・前田廉孝・野田顕彦

    社会経済史学会第85回全国大会  2016.6  社会経済史学会

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:北海道大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • The Futures Premium and Rice Market Efficiency in Prewar Japan

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, and Akihiko Noda

    日本経済学会2015年度秋季大会  2015.10  日本経済学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:上智大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • The Futures Premium and Rice Market Efficiency in Prewar Japan International conference

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, Akihiko Noda

    Western Economic Association International 90th Annual Conference  2015.7  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Honolulu, US   Country/Region:United States  

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  • 戦前期日本における米穀先物市場の統合と情報 効率性:東京米穀商品取引所・大阪堂島米 穀取引所を中心に

    伊藤幹夫・前田廉孝・野田顕彦

    社会経済史学会第84回全国大会  2015.5  社会経済史学会

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:早稲田大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • The Futures Premium and Rice Market Efficiency in Prewar Japan

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, and Akihiko Noda

    日本経済学会2014年度秋季大会  2014.10  日本経済学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:西南学院大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • 戦前期商品先物市場における先物プレミアムと効率性:東京・大阪堂島米穀取引所を事例に

    伊藤幹夫, 前田廉孝, 野田顕彦

    政治経済学・経済史学会2014年度秋季学術大会  2014.10  政治経済学・経済史学会

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:青山学院大学  

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  • Market Efficiency and Government Interventions in Prewar Japanese Rice Futures Markets International conference

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, and Akihiko Noda

    Western Economic Association International 89th Annual Conference  2014.7  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Denver, US   Country/Region:United States  

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  • Market Efficiency and Government Interventions in Prewar Japanese Rice Futures Markets

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, and Akihiko Noda

    日本経済学会2014年度春季大会  2014.6  日本経済学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:同志社大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • International Stock Market Efficiency: A Non-Bayesian Time-Varying Model Approach International conference

    Mikio Ito, Kiyotaka Maeda, and Akihiko Noda

    日本経済学会2013年度秋季大会  2013.9  日本経済学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:神奈川大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • International Stock Market Efficiency: A Non-Bayesian Time-Varying Model Approach International conference

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, Tatsuma Wada

    Western Economic Association International 88th Annual Conference  2013.6  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Seattle, US   Country/Region:United States  

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  • International Stock Market Efficiency: A Non-Bayesian Time-Varying Model Approach International conference

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, and Tatsuma Wada

    Western Economic Association International 10th Biennial Pacific Rim Conference  2013.3  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Tokyo, Japan   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • International Stock Market Efficiency: A Non-Bayesian Time-Varying Model Approach

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, and Tatsuma Wada

    日本経済学会2012年度秋季大会  2012.10  日本経済学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:九州産業大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • The Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency in the US: A Non-Bayesian Time-Varying Model Approach International conference

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, and Tatsuma Wada

    Western Economic Association International 87th Annual Conference  2012.6  Western Economic Association International

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:San Francisco, US   Country/Region:United States  

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  • The Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency in the US: A Non-Bayesian Time-Varying Model Approach

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, and Tatsuma Wada

    日本ファイナンス学会第19回大会  2012.5  日本ファイナンス学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:一橋大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • CCAPM with Time-Varying Parameters: Some Evidence from Japan

    Mikio Ito and Akihiko Noda

    日本経済学会2011年度秋季大会  2011.10  日本経済学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:筑波大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • CCAPM with Time-Varying Parameters: Some Evidence from Japan

    Mikio Ito and Akihiko Noda

    日本ファイナンス学会第18回大会  2011.5  日本ファイナンス学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:早稲田大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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  • The GEL Estimates Resolve the Risk-free Rate Puzzle in Japan

    Mikio Ito and Akihiko Noda

    日本ファイナンス学会第17回大会  2010.5  日本ファイナンス学会

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:上智大学   Country/Region:Japan  

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Awards

  • 大銀協フォーラム奨励賞

    2017.2   大阪銀行協会  

    野田顕彦, 前田廉孝

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    Award type:Award from publisher, newspaper, foundation, etc.  Country/Region:Japan

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Research Projects

  • Comprehensive Studies on the Pricing Mechanism in the Prewar Japanese Stock Market

    Grant number:23K25535  2023.4 - 2028.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

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    Authorship:Principal investigator 

    Grant amount:\17030000 ( Direct Cost: \13100000 、 Indirect Cost:\3930000 )

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  • A Study on the Relationship between Time-Varying Structure of Anomalies and Speculative Bubbles in International Stock Markets

    Grant number:19K13747  2019.4 - 2023.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists  Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists

    Akihiko Noda

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    Authorship:Principal investigator 

    Grant amount:\4290000 ( Direct Cost: \3300000 、 Indirect Cost:\990000 )

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  • Quantitative analysis on integration and price formation of Tokyo and Osaka stock markets before the Second World War

    Grant number:18K01734  2018.4 - 2021.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    Hanai Shunsuke

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    Authorship:Coinvestigator(s) 

    Grant amount:\4290000 ( Direct Cost: \3300000 、 Indirect Cost:\990000 )

    We analyze trade in the Japanese empire conducted on exchanges with a focus on stock exchanges through data on trading before the Second World War and draw three conclusions. First, market efficiency in stock futures markets varied over time from 1878 to 1943. Second, an asymmetric structure between the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which dealt mainly in long-term trading, and the Osaka Stock Exchange, which dealt mainly in short-term trading, was formed from the 1920s. Third, rice futures trading in Korea was enlarged after the late 1930s due to the strengthening of the metropole’s controlled economy.

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  • 近代東アジア米穀市場における情報効率性と統合過程:大阪,台北,仁川,上海を中心に

    2018.4 - 2019.3

    京都産業大学総合学術研究所  特定課題研究

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    Authorship:Principal investigator  Grant type:Competitive

    Grant amount:\1000000 ( Direct Cost: \1000000 )

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  • 時変計量経済モデルを用いた戦前期日本株式市場の時変構造に関する研究

    2018.1 - 2019.12

    村田学術振興財団研究助成 

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    Authorship:Principal investigator  Grant type:Competitive

    Grant amount:\1900000 ( Direct Cost: \1900000 )

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  • Price formation and market management in commodity exchanges after World War I: Empirical research by using the Dojima Kome Shijo Monjo

    Grant number:17K03863  2017.4 - 2020.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    Maeda Kiyotaka

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    Authorship:Coinvestigator(s) 

    Grant amount:\4420000 ( Direct Cost: \3400000 、 Indirect Cost:\1020000 )

    The functions and management of the Osaka-Dojima Rice Exchange were not stable after World War I, although it was the largest commodity exchange in Japan before World War II. The Japanese government enforced the Rice Law in 1921 and the Rice Control Law in 1933 to strengthen its intervention in the rice market, and the futures market tended not to form the adequate price serving as an index of the spot price. This fluctuation of the function caused a decrease in the trading volume, and business conditions of the exchange deteriorated because its commission income from rice futures trading declined. Accordingly, the exchange diversified its businesses by establishing forward market and expanding investment in securities and real estate.

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  • 時変計量経済モデルを用いた為替レート予測に関する研究

    2017.4 - 2020.3

    日本学術振興会  基盤研究(C) 

    伊藤幹夫

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    Authorship:Coinvestigator(s)  Grant type:Competitive

    Grant amount:\5280000 ( Direct Cost: \4290000 、 Indirect Cost:\990000 )

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  • A Study on Time-Varying Structure of Market Integration and Market Efficiency in Modern Period: The Case of Rice Markets in Japan and Colonized Korea

    Grant number:15K03542  2015.4 - 2018.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    NODA Akihiko, IOKU Shigehiko, ITO Mikio

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    Authorship:Principal investigator 

    Grant amount:\4550000 ( Direct Cost: \3500000 、 Indirect Cost:\1050000 )

    The purpose of this study is to examine how the efficiency and the integration speed of rice market in Japan increased before Second World War. Concretely, we employed time-varying econometric models using the monthly spot and futures prices in Tokyo and Osaka. We found the following four facts by featuring the time-varying nature of the efficiency and integration of the market. First, government interventions involving the delivery of imported rice from Taiwan and Korea often reduced futures market efficiency before First World War. Second, the government interventions did not reduce the market efficiency after the 1920s. Third, the market efficiency improved in accordance with reduction in the government’s discretionary power to operate the rice policy under the Beikoku Ho (the Rice Law) and the Beikoku Tousei Ho (the Rice Control Law). Fourth, the increasing use of telegraphs accelerated rice market integration until the end of the 1910s.

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  • A Study for the Time-Varying Structure of Foreign Exchange Markets using Non-Bayesian Time-Varying Econometric Models

    Grant number:26380397  2014.4 - 2017.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, Tatsuma Wada

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    Authorship:Coinvestigator(s) 

    Grant amount:\4680000 ( Direct Cost: \3600000 、 Indirect Cost:\1080000 )

    The objective of this study is to elucidate what causes the futures premium puzzle (FPP), one of the famous longtime unsolved problems on interest parity of foreign exchange markets, with the help of non-Bayesian time-varying econometric models proposed by Ito et. al (2014). In particular, we first developed a non-Bayesian time-varying vector error correction model. We secondly examined the time-varying structure of co-movement among various exchange rates applying the model to data of foreign exchange markets. Then, we found that the above co-movement have varied over time for the past quarter-century and that it has been one of the cause of FPP.

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  • 非ベイズ時変ベクトル自己回帰モデルの構築と金融市場の国際連関の検証

    2013.1 - 2013.12

    全国銀行学術研究振興財団学術研究助成 

    野田顕彦

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    Authorship:Principal investigator  Grant type:Competitive

    Grant amount:\850000 ( Direct Cost: \850000 )

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  • Measuring the Time-Varying Efficiency and Market Linkages in Modern Japanese Rice Markets

    Grant number:24530364  2012.4 - 2015.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    NODA Akihiko, IOKU Shigehiko, MAEDA Kiyotaka, ITO Mikio

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    Authorship:Coinvestigator(s) 

    Grant amount:\5070000 ( Direct Cost: \3900000 、 Indirect Cost:\1170000 )

    The objective of this study is to examine the efficient market hypothesis for the rice futures market in prewar Japan. To attain the objective, we measured the relative market efficiency varying over time and attempted to clarify what varied the efficiency. In particular, we constructed long-run data of the rice market in the period and showed that the efficiency actually varied over time using a time-varying econometric model newly developed. Furthermore, examining the results together with primary historical materials, we finally demonstrated that the government-led import of rice to fill domestic demand reduced the efficiency of domestic rice market in prewar Japan and that the rice futures market failed to provide a proper index of physical rice price.

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Teaching Experience

  • 証券市場論特論

    2022.4 Institution:明治大学大学院商学研究科

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    Level:Postgraduate  Country/Region:Japan

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  • 証券市場論

    2021.4 Institution:明治大学商学部

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    Level:Undergraduate (specialized) 

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  • 応用計量経済分析

    2018.4 - 2021.3 Institution:京都産業大学経済学部

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    Level:Undergraduate (specialized) 

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  • Advanced Econometrics

    2017.4 - 2021.3 Institution:Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto Sangyo University

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    Level:Postgraduate 

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  • 計量経済学

    2015.4 - 2021.3 Institution:京都産業大学経済学部

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    Level:Undergraduate (specialized) 

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  • 経済統計論

    2015.4 - 2018.3 Institution:京都産業大学経済学部

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    Level:Undergraduate (specialized) 

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  • 計量分析実習

    2015.4 - 2018.3 Institution:京都産業大学経済学部

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    Level:Undergraduate (specialized) 

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  • 計量ファイナンス特殊問題

    2014.4 - 2015.3 Institution:和歌山大学大学院経済学研究科

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    Level:Postgraduate 

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  • エコノメトリクス

    2014.4 - 2015.3 Institution:和歌山大学経済学部

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    Level:Undergraduate (specialized) 

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  • ミクロ・マクロ経済学入門

    2013.4 - 2015.3 Institution:和歌山大学経済学部

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    Level:Undergraduate (liberal arts) 

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  • ファイナンス

    2012.4 - 2015.3 Institution:和歌山大学経済学部

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    Level:Undergraduate (specialized) 

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  • マクロ経済学

    2011.4 - 2012.3 Institution:東洋大学経済学部

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    Level:Undergraduate (specialized) 

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