Updated on 2026/03/07

写真a

 
TSUCHIYA YOICHI
 
Organization
Undergraduate School School of Commerce Professor
Title
Professor
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Research Areas

  • Humanities & social sciences / Economic policy

Papers

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MISC

  • "Plan for strengthening the competitiveness of Japan's financial and capital markets" and issues on domestic exchanges

    土屋 陽一

    The JSRI journal of financial and securities markets   ( 62 )   65 - 80   2008.6

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    Language：Japanese   Publisher：日本証券経済研究所  

    CiNii Research

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Research Projects

  • 経済主体の期待形成と主体による差異に関する研究

    Grant number：22K01510  2022.4 - 2027.3

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業  基盤研究(C)

    土屋 陽一

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    Grant amount：\3900000 （ Direct Cost: \3000000 、 Indirect Cost：\900000 ）

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  • Evaluation of forecasts by international organizations and their impacts on private forecasts

    Grant number：18K12775  2018.4 - 2022.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists

    Tsuchiya Yoichi

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    Grant amount：\3770000 （ Direct Cost: \2900000 、 Indirect Cost：\870000 ）

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate economic forecasts published by international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The accuracy of the forecasts and the direction and degree of bias varied among those organizations. However, there were not many instances of pronounced bias, indicating good performance of their forecasts in the medium-term perspective. International institutions generally fulfill an anchor function in the formation of private economic agents' expectations and contribute to stabilizing expectations. These results suggest that private economic agents can form more accurate expectations by taking into account the biases contained in the forecasts of international institutions.

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  • Sources of macroeconomic forecast errors and their impacts on tax revenue estimates

    Grant number：16K17119  2016.4 - 2018.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

    Tsuchiya Yoichi

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    Grant amount：\2080000 （ Direct Cost: \1600000 、 Indirect Cost：\480000 ）

    This study constructs dataset including tax revenue estimates and macroeconomic forecasts by the Japanese government during the period between 1995 and 2016. It shows that those forecast errors are not associated with business cycles or the state of the economy. However, it shows that there are various biases in those estimates and forecasts. Income tax revenue exhibits optimistic biases while corporate tax revenue exhibits prudent biases. Consumption tax revenue does not seem to be biased. Looking at changes in those errors over time, those biases reduces recently, and thus it indicates that the Japanese government is likely to improve its estimates and forecasts.

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