Updated on 2026/03/07

写真a

 
HATANO TOSHIYA
 
Organization
Undergraduate School School of Commerce Professor
Title
Professor
Profile
専門は公共経済学・財政学。
External link

Degree

  • 博士(経済学) ( 一橋大学大学院 )

Research Interests

  • kalman filter

  • Tax Structure

  • public investment

  • fiscal deficit

Research Areas

  • Humanities & social sciences / Public economics, labor economics  / 公共経済学・財政学

  • Humanities & social sciences / Theoretical economics  / マクロ経済学

  • Humanities & social sciences / Economic statistics  / 応用計量経済学

Research History

  • Meiji University   School of Commerce   Professor

    2008

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  • Meiji University   School of Commerce   Associate Professor

    2007 - 2008

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  • Meiji University   School of Commerce   Associate Professor (as old post name)

    2006 - 2007

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  • Chiba University   Faculty of Education

    2004

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  • Chiba University   Faculty of Education   Associate Professor (as old post name)

    2002 - 2005

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Papers

  • 租税構造・歳入構造の国際比較―OECDデータを用いた主成分分析による類型化― Reviewed

    畑農鋭矢, 河合芳樹

    財政研究   20   113 - 130   2024.10

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    Authorship:Lead author   Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

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  • The Effects of Time Distance to Polling Station on Voter Turnout: Empirical Analysis of the 48th General Election of the House of Representatives (2017) Reviewed

    Hatano Toshiya, Takeshita Ryo

    Public Choice Studies   2024 ( 81 )   16 - 31   2024

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    Authorship:Lead author   Language:Japanese   Publisher:JAPAN PUBLIC CHOICE SOCIETY  

    This paper presents an empirical analysis of the effect of the time cost of voting on voter turnout. The analysis covered the 48th General Election for the House of Representatives in Japan held on 22 October 2017 and used individual data from a survey of the electorate to estimate the effect of time distance to the polling station on voter turnout. The empirical results showed that political attitudes variables had a significant effect on voter turnout, but even after controlling for these factors, the effect of time to polling station on voter turnout was still statistically significant. Furthermore, the effect was exactly opposite for election day voting and early voting, with time distance to the polling station having a negative effect on election day voting but a positive effect on early voting. Moreover, there was a non-linearity in the effect of time distance to the polling station, with the size of the marginal effect diminishing with distance.

    DOI: 10.11228/pcstudies.2024.81_16

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  • What is fiscal sustainability?―Transversality condition, Domar condition, the fiscal theory of the price level―

    Eguchi Masataka, Hatano Toshiya

    Public Policy Review   19 ( 3 )   1 - 29   2023

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    Language:English   Publisher:Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan  

    This paper reviews previous studies on fiscal sustainability and conducts a pilot empirical analysis for Japan. In Section I, we summarize the definition of fiscal sustainability and the argument over sovereign defaults. Section II outlines the transversality condition as a typical formulation of fiscal sustainability. Section III introduces money and examines the transversality condition of nominal values. In this setting, the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL), which asserts that the transversality condition is satisfied by price fluctuations, becomes valid. Section IV discusses three issues, taking into account the comparison of interest rates and economic growth rates (i.e., the Domar condition). First, based on the Domar condition, we discuss the equivalence/non-equivalence between the transversality condition and the convergence of the government debt-to-GDP ratio. Second, we consider the Domar condition from the perspective of dynamic efficiency and its implications for fiscal sustainability. In particular, we suggest that in the case where <i>ɡ</i> ><i> r</i>, a rational bubble can arise in government debt and that convergence of the government debt-to-GDP ratio below a certain value (rather than the transversality condition) is an appropriate sustainability indicator. Third, we conduct an empirical analysis (stochastic debt sustainability analysis: SDSA) when there is uncertainty in<i> r </i>− <i>ɡ</i>. According to our calculations, when there is uncertainty in<i> r</i> − <i>ɡ</i>, even if the current situation is <i>ɡ</i> ><i> r</i>, Japan’s government debt-to-GDP ratio could be very large in 2030.

    DOI: 10.57520/prippr.19-3-2

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  • 財政の持続可能性とは何か? : 横断性条件,ドーマー条件,物価水準の財政理論—特集 持続可能な経済 : 理論的条件と将来見通し

    江口 允崇, 畑農 鋭矢

    フィナンシャル・レビュー / 財務省財務総合政策研究所 編   2022 ( 4 )   19 - 45   2022.12

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  • The Determinants of Attrition in Panel Data: The happier they are, the more are they likely to drop out of panel surveys? Reviewed

    Toshiya Hatano, RyoTakeshita

    Advances in Social Research   ( 26 )   2021.3

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    Authorship:Lead author   Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

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  • Measuring the Regional Productivity and the Interregional Spillover Effects of Public Capital in the Kyushu District

    54 ( 2 )   129 - 144   2016.3

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

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    Other Link: http://hdl.handle.net/10291/18185

  • Heterogeneity of Consumer Behavior in Response to a Rising Consumption Tax Rate : Empirical analysis by micro data

    97 ( 4 )   665 - 679   2015.3

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  • Crowding-in Effect of Public Investment on Private Investment Invited Reviewed

    Toshiya Hatano

    Public Policy Review   6 ( 1 )   2010.2

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  • Macroeconomic volatility and social security financing Invited

    畑農 鋭矢

    The Quarterly of social security research   46 ( 1 )   12 - 22   2010

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:国立社会保障・人口問題研究所  

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  • Measuring the regional economic characteristics using component analysis

    畑農 鋭矢

    The Bulletin of the Faculty of Commerce, Meiji University. Meidai shogaku ronso   91 ( 2 )   193 - 212   2009.3

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:明治大学商学研究所  

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  • 公共投資の民間投資誘発効果--ストック均衡を考慮した誤差修正モデルによる検証 (特集 社会資本整備) Invited

    畑農 鋭矢

    フィナンシャル・レビュー   2008 ( 2 )   30 - 42   2008.3

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:国立印刷局  

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  • 労働市場の変化と公共政策のあり方 Invited

    畑農 鋭矢

    会計検査研究   ( 34 )   97 - 112   2006.9

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:会計検査院事務総長官房上席研究調査官  

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  • 財政赤字と社会保障財政 (特集:社会保障の規模とその影響) Invited Reviewed

    畑農 鋭矢

    季刊社会保障研究   42 ( 1 )   46 - 58   2006

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:国立社会保障・人口問題研究所  

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  • 財政支出の決定要因--主要先進諸国の実証分析 Reviewed

    畑農 鋭矢, 砂原 庸介

    公共選択の研究   ( 45 )   45 - 63   2005

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:勁草書房  

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  • The Determinants of the Fiscal Expenditures in Developed Countries: An Empirical Investigation

    Hatano Toshiya, Sunahara Yosuke

    Public Choice Studies   2005 ( 45 )   45 - 63   2005

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    Publisher:JAPAN PUBLIC CHOICE SOCIETY  

    In this article, the authors try to understand the factors affecting government consumption, government fixed investment, and total disbursements among 19 OECD countries. Many empirical analyses have ever tried to explain the reason why welfare states expanded after the WW II, by focusing on industrialization factor and/or political factors. In the 1990s, great advance of econometric method allow to test several theories by using Time-Series Cross-Section data, and this trend stimulate the effort to quantify the political and institutional character traits of the countries.<BR>Our analysis, using TSCS data for 19 countries over the period from 1975 to 1999, is distinctive at least two ways. First, in, contrast to former studies, we focus on the period when most OECD countries do not necessarily expand after oil shock. Second, we can use many important political and fiscal variables, which former studies could not use. The estimation result with two-way fixed effects model shows that those countries in the bad fiscal situation might rein in government consumption and total disbursement. It suggests that not only fiscal demand increase expenditure, but government fiscal constraint might hold down expenditures. Also, we confirm that increase in total trade have been associated with less government expenditures. This result supports "efficiency hypothesis" which claims globalization trend put pressure on governments to cut back expenditures. In addition, our estimation shows different result which is expected from traditional "Wagner's Law", which claims increase in GDP per capita would expand gov-ernment expenditure.

    DOI: 10.11228/pcs1981.2005.45_45

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  • 財政赤字のマクロ経済効果--カルマン・フィルタによる中立命題の検証 (特集「財政政策の評価」) Invited Reviewed

    畑農 鋭矢

    フィナンシャル・レビュー   2004 ( 5 )   65 - 91   2004.11

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  • 社会的入院の定量的把握と費用推計 Reviewed

    畑農 鋭矢

    医療経済研究   15   23 - 35   2004

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:医療経済研究機構  

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  • <Article>Instability of Public Pensions from Macroeconomic Volatility

    HATANO Toshiya

    Economic journal of Chiba University   18 ( 2 )   297 - 327   2003.9

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:千葉大学  

    It is often said that the aging in Japan causes the crisis of the public pension system and is moving ahead faster than expecting. In fact, the forecast of the population structure is corrected many times and a state of the public pension system is aggravated each time. Only the population structure doesn&#039;t have the uncertainty of the forecast but also most of macroeconomic variables have. The Purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the macroeconomic environment on the provision of the welfare pension benefits. It was found from the result that volatility of the macroeconomic envi...

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  • 社会的入院の要因分析

    畑農鋭矢

    日本財政学会第59回大会 (東京大学, 2002年)   2002

  • 社会的入院の定量的把握と医療費推計

    畑農鋭矢

    日本経済学会2002年度秋季大会 (広島大学)   2002

  • Tax Smoothing and Public Finance Policy in Japan

    Hatano Toshiya

    Economic journal of Chiba University   16 ( 2 )   435 - 454   2001.9

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:千葉大学  

    The purpose of this study is to examine &#039;Tax Smoothing&#039; hypothesis in Japan. If this hypothesis is appropriate, we should not be anxious about fiscal deficit, because the deficit reduces the frictions and plays a role of cushion for business cycles. In other words, a temporary fall in incomes or/and rise in government expenditures make fiscal deficit in order to minimize the deadweight losses. Over the past few decades, several studies have been concluded on &#039;Tax Smoothing&#039; hypothesis by the data, and rejected the idea that the government smoothes the tax rate in Japan. However, the questio...

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  • The Effects of Public Capital Accumulation on labor Demand

    Hatano Toshiya

    Economic journal of Chiba University   15 ( 1 )   33 - 64   2000.6

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:千葉大学  

    A Japanese economy seems to walk in the dark tunnel long after the bubble collapse. Many enterprises can&#039;t maintain their employments under such conditions, and the unemployment rate is rising violently. The unemployment rate reaches an ordinary level as the West, and a Japanese employment system faces the crisis. Though some economic fiscal policies were carried out, the effects were very poor, and trust in the economic fiscal policy is declining. Particularly, a public investment policy is criticized. However, even if the effect of the public investment based on traditional Keynesian appr...

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  • Rigidity of Rents and the Land Price Fluctuations

    14 ( 3 )   561 - 584   1999.12

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution)  

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    Other Link: http://id.ndl.go.jp/bib/5311989

  • Rigidity of Rents and the Land Price Fluctuations (Collected Papers on the Occasion of the Retirement of Professor Kenji Komatsu)

    Hatano Toshiya

    Economic journal of Chiba University   14 ( 3 )   561 - 584   1999.12

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:千葉大学  

    Theoretically, most of the economists show that the land prices should be equal to the sum of the discounted future rents. However, the real land prices are more volatile than such fundamental values and it is generally believed that non-rationality causes the excess volatilities. In this paper, I propose the new economic model of the land prices, which can explain the great fluctuations of the land prices, such as the &quot;Bubble&quot; phenomenon in Japan. The model is characterized by discriminating between the new and continued contracted rents, and supposing that the continued contracted rents i...

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  • The Sustainability of Government Deficits in Japan

    Hatano Toshiya

    The Hitotsubashi review   122 ( 6 )   715 - 732   1999.12

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:一橋大学  

    論文タイプ||論説

    DOI: 10.15057/10588

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  • Public Capital and Production Capacity of Macroeconomy Reviewed

    Hatano Toshiya

    The Hitotsubashi review   119 ( 6 )   738 - 756   1998.6

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:一橋大学  

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    DOI: 10.15057/11982

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  • On the Measurement of Business Cycles

    Hatano Toshiya

    Hitotsubashi journal of social sciences   23 ( 1 )   45 - 65   1998.4

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    DOI: 10.15057/5737

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Books

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MISC

  • 経済教室 財政健全化の視点(中)政策目標は利払い合算で Invited

    畑農鋭矢

    日本経済新聞   2018.6

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    Language:Japanese  

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  • 経済理論で読み解く――消費増税はいかにして消費者心理に影響を与えるのか Invited

    畑農鋭矢

    宣伝会議   883号 ( 883 )   18 - 21   2015.5

  • 経済教室 財政再建、成長回復が必須 Invited

    畑農鋭矢

    日本経済新聞   2011.4

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  • 非定常な世界へ--『財政赤字と財政運営の経済分析』を越えて

    畑農 鋭矢

    書斎の窓   ( 591 )   23 - 27   2010.1

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:有斐閣  

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  • 出版までの遙かなる道程--『財政学をつかむ』を刊行して

    畑農 鋭矢

    書斎の窓   ( 577 )   34 - 38   2008.9

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:有斐閣  

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  • やさしい経済学 政府の大きさと国民の負担 Invited

    畑農鋭矢

    日本経済新聞   2008.8

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  • 座談会 リスクに立ち向かう日本経済 (特集 経済財政白書--リスクに立ち向かう日本経済)

    木内 登英, 畑農 鋭矢, 宮島 英昭

    ESP, economy,society,policy   ( 515 )   4 - 19   2008.8

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:経済企画協会  

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  • 特集鼎談 年金問題の本質はどこにあるのか--野口悠紀雄+小椋正立+畑農鋭矢

    野口 悠紀雄, 小椋 正立, 畑農 鋭矢

    ベストパ-トナ-   19 ( 12 )   4 - 17   2007.12

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:浜銀総合研究所  

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Presentations

  • 新学習指導要領による金融経済教育の効果

    髙橋桂子, 栗原久, 畑農鋭矢

    日本経済教育学会第41回全国大会  2025.9 

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  • The Importance of “Don’t Know” Responses in Measuring Financial Literacy: An Empirical Analysis Using Income-Based Regression

    Takahashi Keiko, Hatano Toshiya, Nakamura Satoki

    the 25th AEEE Conference, Italy  2025.8 

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  • 新学習指導要領による金融経済教育の効果測定:因果推論アプローチによる分析

    髙橋桂子, 栗原久, 畑農鋭矢

    家計経済に関する研究助成論文(2024 年度助成)報告会  2025.8 

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  • Debt リテラシー:借入行動に好ましい影響を与える要因に関する調査研究

    高橋桂子, 畑農鋭矢, 中村賢軌

    日本FP学会 第25回大会  2024.9 

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  • Debt リテラシー:借入行動に望ましい影響を与える要因に関する調査研究

    髙橋桂子, 畑農鋭矢, 中村賢軌

    研究奨励金受贈者オンライン発表会 

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Research Projects

  • Panel research on the mechanism of making social norms, policy preferences, and public opinions

    Grant number:25285093  2013.4 - 2016.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    Hatano Toshiya, TAMURA Tetsuki, HORIE Takashi, MIZUOCHI Masaaki, MIZUNO Makoto, KUWASHIMA Yufu, TAKESHITA Ryo, NOJI Momo

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    Grant amount:\17290000 ( Direct Cost: \13300000 、 Indirect Cost:\3990000 )

    The questionnaire survey concerning the economic policy was executed six times in total as a frame in this study. The panel data is used for empirical analysis of each researchers and some important discoveries were performed. The level of happiness seems to be different according to the response pattern to the consumption tax. Happy people don't change the consumption behavior to the consumption tax, and unhappy people negatively react to the consumption tax. As a result, the influence of the consumption tax depends on the state of the mind.

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  • Quantification of norm in household behavior by state space model and factor analysis by event study

    Grant number:24653049  2012.4 - 2015.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research  Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research

    HATANO Toshiya

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    Grant amount:\2210000 ( Direct Cost: \1700000 、 Indirect Cost:\510000 )

    The present study assumes the presumption of the latent variable in which the preference of the household economy is shown by using the state space model, and the attempt of the examination and the regional comparison analysis of the historical change to be a plan. Such an analysis is to clarify the difference of the formation of expectation concerning the public debt burden by the region. Especially, the change of the time series of the deep parameter of the household economy action can be caught by the state space model's application, and the influence that the economic policy of the change and the government of the economic environment in the region is a formation of expectation of the household economy and exerts on the ideal way of preference can be understood to the target at the time of passing. The measurement result of the deep parameter was also roughly excellent, and it was possible to report on the result in some theses.

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  • The Evaluation of Fiscal Policy Based on Multi-Region DSGE Model

    Grant number:22330090  2010.4 - 2015.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    CHIDA Ryokichi, TSUKAHARA Yasuhiro, HATANO Toshiya, YAMADA Tomoaki, KATO Hisakazu, TAMEGAWA Kenichi, FUKUDA Shin

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    Grant amount:\16900000 ( Direct Cost: \13000000 、 Indirect Cost:\3900000 )

    If people take a forward-looking behavior, the effects of fiscal expansion tend to be small. People expect the future tax burden caused by the current fiscal expansion. However, when fiscal expansion can raise the labor productivity of a region, the expected future income of the region increases and people move into the region. The regional economy can be vitalized through the labor mobility and the effects of fiscal policy become larger than those without labor mobility.

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  • Cross-prefectural comparison of expectations on the future burden of public debt

    Grant number:19530290  2007 - 2009

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    HATANO Toshiya

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    Grant amount:\2340000 ( Direct Cost: \1800000 、 Indirect Cost:\540000 )

    I confirmed that the key parameters of household behavior are different seriously between regions. These differences are largely caused by the differences of expectations. Also, the cognition about the burden of public debt varied between regions.

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  • To evaluate the impact of social security type fiscal expenditure for building a sustainable model

    Grant number:16530205  2004 - 2006

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    KURIHARA Shinichi, OHE Yasuo, HATANO Toshiya, SHIMOURA Shinpei

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    Grant amount:\2900000 ( Direct Cost: \2900000 )

    The financial reform in Japan, putting priority onto the budget making to meet with next coming aging society, is needed. The purpose of this research project is to evaluate the socio-economical impact of social security oriented budget policy to adjust to next aging society, and present supportive policy plan to contribute to make sustainable budget system. In the research, we conducted input-output analysis and Conjoint analysis to simulate the effect on regional economy in the case of introducing the new social security oriented budget policy.
    Result and suggestion from the research is as following. Firstly, the result from input-output analysis showed that economic effect on regional employee by actively expanding social security sector was lager than public works. And, in urban area, it was possible to get more economic benefit from social security sector than in rural area. Secondly, consciousness of local resident from questionnaire survey showed that they called for cutting budget used in public works sector. In the other hand, residents living in rural area put their preference on some kind of public works such as rural infrastructure improvement. Moreover, it was showed that many of resident living in rural area hoped additional budget increase for revitalizing social security sector. But, their relative weight on budget increase for social security was low because of current strict austerity budget policy to get economic recovery. These finding from the research will contribute to decision making to take step onto the new social security oriented budget policy for next generation.

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  • The positive research on the effects of Universal Design in the infrastructure improvement toward the aged society

    Grant number:14350280  2002 - 2004

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    ISOBE Tomohiko, AKIAMA Tetsuo, SATO Katsushi, SONODA Mariko, YOSHIDA Hiroshi, HATANO Toshiya

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    Grant amount:\12200000 ( Direct Cost: \12200000 )

    1. A handy economic model in consideration of the plant investment for barrier-free improvements was built, and the most suitable barrier-free level is explained by the efficiency standard.
    2. Travel time was measured separately with multiple case of the rate of the old man contained in the degree of the movement barrier by the method of the computer simulation.
    3. A SD model was made to evaluate effect on an influence by barrier-free environment improvement on one the same field. It was divided into 5 sectors such as; 1) handicapped person or old man, 2) assistance person or care business person, 3) commercial establishment, 4) general citizen, and 5) administration, and simulation for the action confirmation was carried out.
    4. The actual condition grasping investigation, a user experiment was enforced as the store of the shopping street and the shopping street in front of the actual station. The examination of the cost vs. effect that grasping of the repair condition related to Universal Design of the store and the shopping street in the cause is related to the proposal of the way of preparing it, the maintenance was done it.
    5. It faced a use research on the actual condition in the station where the establishment of the going up and down device in the railroad station was completed, and questionnaire investigation was carried out.
    6. The research of the application of the new transport system that it aimed at Universal Design was done. The new system is considered based on the present condition of the public transport in the rural area and the old men's character.

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